The fascinating charts below show just how important the Economy is to Presidential elections, with every President since Wilson who did not have a recession occur in the final two years of his term winning re-election, and all but one President who did have a recession occur in the final two years of his term being voted out of office. No doubt President Trump is acutely aware of how important the economy is to his re-election, which begs the question, how long and far will he push the “Trade War” with China, at the short-term expense of the U.S. economy?
President Trump is already pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates (which China has interpreted to mean the President is worried about the U.S. economy, emboldening them in negotiations). Should the stock market keep falling, it’s worth asking if the President will be more open to compromises with China, and want a “deal” no matter the terms.
Source: Bruce Mehlman, via the Daily Shot (WSJ)